Tax: income, GST & excise
Net cost in this area
Four-year net. Bars share one scale. Solid adds to the deficit, light reduces it.
KiwiSaver: extra ESCT revenue from default rates rising above 4% (4.5% Apr 2029, 5% Apr 2030)−$305mOur estimatelow
No published figure for this policy. National's doc cites the Treasury/IRD Budget 2025 estimate of about $163m/yr average net ESCT for the 3%->4% default-rate rise (1pp), says it expects 'similar' revenue, but chose not to count it. Method: about $81.5m/yr per 0.5pp step. Steps above current law (4% from Apr 2028) at Apr 2029 and Apr 2030; Apr 2031 step counted for one quarter of 2030/31. 2028/29 about 20, 2029/30 about 102, 2030/31 about 183, total about 305. Compulsion ESCT excluded (unknown). Replaces the v1 row, which wrongly applied $163m/yr to this policy (-489).
Source[Baseline] Fuel excise and RUC increases delayed one year (to Jan 2028) with NLTF top-up$0mPartyhighIn current plans
Government decision on 31 Aug 2026. The 12c rise planned for 1 Jan 2027 is replaced by 5c every six months from 2028 (20c in total vs 22c). NLTF topped up by $1.476b over the forecast period: $450m from the Budget 2026 fuel-crisis contingency, the rest in PREFU. Already in PREFU, so the full $1,476m is in_baseline. No year-by-year split published, so annual = 4-yr / 4 (369). years_covered is the PREFU forecast period; RNZ says "over the forecast period", so this is an assumption.
SourceSmall Business Action Plan: raise GST registration threshold $60k to $80k and $10k instant asset write-off+$1.56bPartymedium
$1.56b over four years for the package. Asset write-off starts July 2027; GST threshold starts July 2028. About 35,000 businesses leave the GST system. No split between the two measures was published. This is Labour's only GST change; no GST rate or food exemption change was found for 2026. Annual = 4-yr / 4. Category: mixed package (GST threshold plus a business write-off); tagged to GST as the headline element. There is no IRD ready reckoner for the GST threshold, and no split between the two measures was published.
SourceReverse heated tobacco excise cut−$365mPartymedium
$365m in the fiscal plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4. years_covered: Labour reports this as a total over the PREFU forecast period (2026/27-2030/31). Spending is expected from 2027/28, so in practice it is a 4-year figure.
SourceIncome tax changes: $10k tax-free threshold, lower rates to $160k, new 45% top rate above $160k+$10.0bPartymedium
Party costing. Our cross-check (Treasury ready reckoner not accessible - Cloudflare): static microsimulation on IRD taxable-income distribution 2025 (4.75m people, $278bn income; reproduces IRD tax on taxable income $61.7bn vs $62.1bn actual) gives a static cost of $1.7bn at 2025 incomes and ~$1.1bn in 2027/28 after wage growth (the fixed $160k threshold claws back more over time). Party figure is ~$1.2bn/yr higher, consistent with assuming a behavioural loss on the 45% rate (e.g. income shifted to companies/trusts; static 45% recoup ~$1.7bn). Ignores tax credits (IETC). Party figure treated as conservative. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 2335/2439/2557/2680. Annual column = 4-year average.
SourceIncome tax overhaul: $30k tax-free, 15% to $60k, 33% to $90k, 39% to $180k, 42% to $300k, 48% above+$55.6bPartymedium
Party estimate. Our cross-check: static microsimulation on IRD 2025 taxable-income distribution gives $13.9bn at 2025 incomes and ~$13.8bn in 2027/28 - matches. Cuts to $60k cost ~$18.3bn; higher rates (33/39/42/48) recoup ~$4.4bn statically - a behavioural response at 42%/48% (income shifting to 28-33% companies/39% trusts) would raise the true cost, plausibly to $15bn+. Confidence raised to medium. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).
SourceKai Credit ("No GST on Kai"): income tax credit ~$800-1,000/yr for earners under $60k (~3m people)+$11.2bPartymedium
Party estimate; arithmetic consistent with $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).
SourceKiwiSaver: extra ESCT revenue from default rates rising above 4% (4.5% Apr 2029, 5% Apr 2030)−$305mOur estimatelow
No published figure for this policy. National's doc cites the Treasury/IRD Budget 2025 estimate of about $163m/yr average net ESCT for the 3%->4% default-rate rise (1pp), says it expects 'similar' revenue, but chose not to count it. Method: about $81.5m/yr per 0.5pp step. Steps above current law (4% from Apr 2028) at Apr 2029 and Apr 2030; Apr 2031 step counted for one quarter of 2030/31. 2028/29 about 20, 2029/30 about 102, 2030/31 about 183, total about 305. Compulsion ESCT excluded (unknown). Replaces the v1 row, which wrongly applied $163m/yr to this policy (-489).
Source[Baseline] Fuel excise and RUC increases delayed one year (to Jan 2028) with NLTF top-up$0mPartyhighIn current plans
Government decision on 31 Aug 2026. The 12c rise planned for 1 Jan 2027 is replaced by 5c every six months from 2028 (20c in total vs 22c). NLTF topped up by $1.476b over the forecast period: $450m from the Budget 2026 fuel-crisis contingency, the rest in PREFU. Already in PREFU, so the full $1,476m is in_baseline. No year-by-year split published, so annual = 4-yr / 4 (369). years_covered is the PREFU forecast period; RNZ says "over the forecast period", so this is an assumption.
SourceSmall Business Action Plan: raise GST registration threshold $60k to $80k and $10k instant asset write-off+$1.56bPartymedium
$1.56b over four years for the package. Asset write-off starts July 2027; GST threshold starts July 2028. About 35,000 businesses leave the GST system. No split between the two measures was published. This is Labour's only GST change; no GST rate or food exemption change was found for 2026. Annual = 4-yr / 4. Category: mixed package (GST threshold plus a business write-off); tagged to GST as the headline element. There is no IRD ready reckoner for the GST threshold, and no split between the two measures was published.
SourceReverse heated tobacco excise cut−$365mPartymedium
$365m in the fiscal plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4. years_covered: Labour reports this as a total over the PREFU forecast period (2026/27-2030/31). Spending is expected from 2027/28, so in practice it is a 4-year figure.
SourceIncome tax changes: $10k tax-free threshold, lower rates to $160k, new 45% top rate above $160k+$10.0bPartymedium
Party costing. Our cross-check (Treasury ready reckoner not accessible - Cloudflare): static microsimulation on IRD taxable-income distribution 2025 (4.75m people, $278bn income; reproduces IRD tax on taxable income $61.7bn vs $62.1bn actual) gives a static cost of $1.7bn at 2025 incomes and ~$1.1bn in 2027/28 after wage growth (the fixed $160k threshold claws back more over time). Party figure is ~$1.2bn/yr higher, consistent with assuming a behavioural loss on the 45% rate (e.g. income shifted to companies/trusts; static 45% recoup ~$1.7bn). Ignores tax credits (IETC). Party figure treated as conservative. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 2335/2439/2557/2680. Annual column = 4-year average.
SourceNothing announced in this area.
Nothing announced in this area.
Income tax overhaul: $30k tax-free, 15% to $60k, 33% to $90k, 39% to $180k, 42% to $300k, 48% above+$55.6bPartymedium
Party estimate. Our cross-check: static microsimulation on IRD 2025 taxable-income distribution gives $13.9bn at 2025 incomes and ~$13.8bn in 2027/28 - matches. Cuts to $60k cost ~$18.3bn; higher rates (33/39/42/48) recoup ~$4.4bn statically - a behavioural response at 42%/48% (income shifting to 28-33% companies/39% trusts) would raise the true cost, plausibly to $15bn+. Confidence raised to medium. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).
SourceKai Credit ("No GST on Kai"): income tax credit ~$800-1,000/yr for earners under $60k (~3m people)+$11.2bPartymedium
Party estimate; arithmetic consistent with $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).
SourceNothing announced in this area.
Tags: Capital one-off spending that adds to debt rather than the annual deficit; Aspirational stated as a goal without a firm commitment; In current plans partly funded in Treasury's PREFU 2026 forecasts already. Change the filters above to include or exclude these.