NZ Politics Costed

National

Announced policies and their four-year fiscal cost. Positive worsens the Government's books.
Cost basis
New spendingTotal announced
Sources
Party figures onlyIncl. independent
Capital spending
ExcludeInclude
Aspirational pledges
ExcludeInclude
Net 4-year cost
+$1.73b
Spending & tax cuts
+$2.04b
Revenue & savings
−$305m
Already in current plans
$1.50b
Excluded from this view

Policies by size

Each bar is a policy's four-year cost. Bars are drawn to the same scale.

KiwiSaver: compulsory for all workers from 1 Jul 2028 (Government contribution cost)
+$385m
Super & KiwiSaverPartyhigh

National policy doc table: $124.5m 2028/29, $128.4m 2029/30, $132.3m 2030/31 (none in 2027/28). This is the extra Government contribution paid to newly compulsory members. Contributions rise to 6% employee + 6% employer by 2032. Paid from future Budget operating allowances. Annual = 2030/31. 4-yr column covers 2027/28-2030/31; costs start in 2028/29.

Source
KiwiSaver: $1500 Baby Boost and auto-enrolment at birth (from 1 Jul 2027)
+$360m
Super & KiwiSaverPartyhigh

About 60,000 births/yr x $1,500 = $90m/yr, per National. Paid from operating allowances. NZ First has a similar $1,000 policy.

Source
Extend paid parental leave from 26 to 30 weeks by 2029
+$327m
Welfare & income supportPartyhigh

Announced 26 Jul 2026. 27 weeks in 2027, 28 in 2028, 30 in 2029. National costing: $27m 2027/28, $56.6m 2028/29, $119m 2029/30; 4-yr total $327m, so 2030/31 is about $124.4m (NBR headline: $125m). Parents can also take leave at the same time. Long-term aim is 40 weeks, no date given or costed. From operating allowances.

Source
KiwiSaver: extra ESCT revenue from default rates rising above 4% (4.5% Apr 2029, 5% Apr 2030)
−$305m
Tax: income, GST & exciseOur estimatelow

No published figure for this policy. National's doc cites the Treasury/IRD Budget 2025 estimate of about $163m/yr average net ESCT for the 3%->4% default-rate rise (1pp), says it expects 'similar' revenue, but chose not to count it. Method: about $81.5m/yr per 0.5pp step. Steps above current law (4% from Apr 2028) at Apr 2029 and Apr 2030; Apr 2031 step counted for one quarter of 2030/31. 2028/29 about 20, 2029/30 about 102, 2030/31 about 183, total about 305. Compulsion ESCT excluded (unknown). Replaces the v1 row, which wrongly applied $163m/yr to this policy (-489).

Source
Student loans: one-off write-down of the loan book from cutting the repayment rate 12c to 10c
+$283m
EducationPartymedium

National's costing, reported by 1News (30 Aug 2026) and NEWS WIRE: one-off $283m write-down booked in 2026/27. This is an accounting impairment, not cash: NZ-based loans are interest-free, so slower repayment lowers their value. It hits OBEGAL. Annual = 0 because it does not recur. Outside the standard 2027/28-2030/31 window. Previously part of a single $438m row.

Source
KiwiSaver: compulsion cost to the Crown as employer
+$283m
Super & KiwiSaverPartymedium

National doc: $84.3m 2028/29, $94.2m 2029/30, $104.3m 2030/31. PSA (2 Jul 2026) says the real figure is $4.5b of unfunded extra employer costs for public agencies and funded providers, because the provision only covers workers not already in KiwiSaver. Per National, most agencies would absorb the rest within baselines (as in Budget 2026). Over-65 employer contributions (from 1 Jul 2027) also absorbed in baselines, no cost shown. Annual = 2030/31. The PSA claim is shown in its own independent row (the gap above this figure).

Source
Student loans: repayment rate cut 12c to 10c from Apr 2027 (ongoing cost) plus tougher rules for overseas borrowers
+$155m
EducationPartymedium

National's costing (via 1News/NEWS WIRE): $438m over five years, minus the $283m write-down, leaves $155m over 2027/28-2030/31. No year split published, so annual = 4-yr / 4 (1News said 'about $31m a year'). National expects about $15m/yr net recoveries from tougher overseas enforcement (higher interest, KiwiSaver withdrawal limits, warrants). It is unclear whether $155m is net of these; NEWS WIRE notes $15m is 0.6% of the $2,478m overdue.

Source
KiwiSaver: Government contribution during paid parental leave (from 1 Jul 2027)
+$109m
Super & KiwiSaverPartyhigh

National doc: $20.1m, $24.6m, $29.6m, $35.0m for 2027/28-2030/31. Modelled as the full employer contribution on PPL payments, less ESCT and the cost of the current matching policy. Annual = 2030/31. The four KiwiSaver rows add to $1,137m over 4 years (RNZ: 'over $1 billion').

Source
International Visitor Levy reset: residual paid to councils from 1 Jul 2027
+$105m
Economy & businessPartyhigh

Announced 8 Sep 2026 in place of a bed tax. DOC gets a fixed $100m/yr, a new tourism priorities fund $50m/yr, and councils the residual (forecast $86m 2027/28 rising to $106m 2030/31; about $385m to councils over 4 yrs). National puts the Crown cost at $105.1m over 4 yrs, rising from $15.4m to $38.9m. Peters called it 'reallocating the operating allowance'. Annual = 2030/31.

Source
Auckland public transport police team (50 extra officers)
+$28m
Justice & policePartyhigh

Announced 13 Sep 2026. $7m/yr from Budget 2027. 4-yr = 7 x 4.

Source
First Home Loan: single $300k income cap (5% deposit)
$0m
HousingPartymedium

Announced 6-7 Sep 2026. National estimates $4m-$6m/yr; midpoint $5m used. Funded by reprioritising existing baselines, so it is not new money. Crown underwrites the loans (contingent liability not costed). Critics warn it could push up prices at the capped end of the market. in_baseline = full $20m because it is funded by reprioritising money already in the PREFU baselines. interest.co.nz (6 Sep 2026, citing the National policy doc): the $4-6m covers admin and support for an expected doubling of the scheme; current admin is about $14.5m/yr for about 3,085 underwritings (2024/25). Budget 2025 lowered the ongoing cost by making borrowers pay Lenders Mortgage Insurance. Confidence stays medium because only a range is given.

Source
[Baseline] Fuel excise and RUC increases delayed one year (to Jan 2028) with NLTF top-up
$0m
Tax: income, GST & excisePartyhigh

Government decision on 31 Aug 2026. The 12c rise planned for 1 Jan 2027 is replaced by 5c every six months from 2028 (20c in total vs 22c). NLTF topped up by $1.476b over the forecast period: $450m from the Budget 2026 fuel-crisis contingency, the rest in PREFU. Already in PREFU, so the full $1,476m is in_baseline. No year-by-year split published, so annual = 4-yr / 4 (369). years_covered is the PREFU forecast period; RNZ says "over the forecast period", so this is an assumption.

Source

Analysis notes

National Party: 2026 fiscal position and costing

Status as at 2026-10-06 (second pass, CSV schema v2): National has not released a fiscal plan. Re-checked 6 Oct. On 4 Oct Luxon said it would come out "in a couple of weeks" and admitted he was "not quite sure" of the date (NZ Herald). The election is on 7 November. This file records the commitments announced so far, each costed by the party where National published a figure.

Headline fiscal framework

National's "Budget Responsibility Rules", announced 9 Aug (RNZ):

  • surplus in 2028/29;
  • net debt below 40% of GDP;
  • Crown spending moving towards 30% of GDP.

Tax commitments:

  • No new taxes. The bed tax and bank tax were dropped on 23 Aug (RNZ).
  • No income tax cuts until the books are in surplus. Willis has hinted at bracket changes and R&D tax credit changes later, but has given no rates or figures (RNZ, 30 Sep). They appear in the CSV as uncosted, aspirational rows with blank cost. A Treasury/IRD ready-reckoner cross-check is not possible without rates or thresholds.

PREFU (29 Sep) forecasts (RNZ):

  • OBEGAL −$6.8b in 2026/27, −$0.8b in 2027/28 and +$4.0b in 2028/29;
  • net debt peaking at 43.9% of GDP in 2028.

Total cost of announced commitments (forecast period, mostly 2027/28–2030/31)

All figures are 4-year, in $m.

Component Total announced In baseline (PREFU) New spending
Operating: KiwiSaver package 1,137; paid parental leave 327; student-loan write-down 283 (2026/27) + ongoing 155; visitor levy 105; police 28; First Home Loan 20 (funded from existing baselines) 2,055 20 2,035
Capital: Mill Road 1,850; Christchurch Northern Motorway 800; Home Energy Fund equity 7 2,657 0 2,657
Incumbent decisions already in PREFU: fuel-tax delay / NLTF top-up 1,476; specialist classrooms 23 (cervical screening cost unpublished, excluded) 1,499 1,499 0
Total, National's own figures 6,211 1,519 4,692
ESCT revenue from KiwiSaver default-rate rises (our estimate, low confidence) −305 0 −305
Total, including our ESCT estimate 5,906 1,519 4,387
Critic view: PSA's $4.5b employer-cost claim, shown as the gap above National's $283m (period unstated) +4,217 0 +4,217

Uncosted and excluded from the totals:

  • post-surplus income tax changes;
  • R&D tax credit changes;
  • paid parental leave to 40 weeks.

Notes on these totals:

  • The operating items average about $0.5b/yr. That is well inside the future Budget operating allowances of about $2.4b/yr, which Labour says it also adopted (Stuff). Budget 2026 itself used $2.1b (Wikipedia).
  • Against the PREFU forecasts the net new impact is roughly nil if the items fit within the allowances. Against a no-new-policy baseline they cost the "New spending" column.
  • Capital items raise net debt but do not affect OBEGAL. It is not stated whether they fit inside the forecast capital allowances.

Already in the baseline (incumbent decisions, not counted as new)

These are listed in the CSV with a "[Baseline]" prefix and their full cost in in_baseline_nzd_m.

  • Fuel excise/RUC delay: NLTF top-up of $1.476b, part-funded by $450m from the Budget 2026 fuel contingency (RNZ).
  • Free cervical screening from March 2027: cost unpublished (RNZ).
  • $23m for 20 specialist classrooms (RNZ).

How National says it will fund it

  • Operating items come from "future Budget operating allowances" (KiwiSaver doc; RNZ PPL).
  • The First Home Loan change is funded from existing baselines.
  • Spending restraint is meant to reach the 30%-of-GDP target, building on the 8,700 public-sector job cuts in Budget 2026.
  • No new revenue measures.

Criticisms and alternative costings

  • PSA (2 Jul): compulsory KiwiSaver at 6%+6% leaves $4.5b of unfunded employer costs that public agencies and funded providers must absorb. National costs only $283m over 4 yrs for the Crown as employer. This is the CSV's independent row. The NZ Herald's figure of about $90m/yr per 0.5pp step implies about $338m over 2028/29–30/31 and about $360m/yr by 2032. The PSA total probably spans a longer horizon and includes funded providers (PSA).
  • ACT (Seymour): the fiscal rules are "three years too late" with spending at 32.6% of GDP. Greens: the rules are "meaningless". Labour: the rules are "fake pressure", and ruling out revenue implies cuts (RNZ).
  • Peters: the visitor levy reset only "reallocates the operating allowance" (1News).
  • Auckland Mayor Brown: the Mill Road plan is "idiotic" (Stuff).
  • Christchurch motorway: NZTA's investment case sets an envelope of $800m–$1b. National says any overrun above $800m comes from the NLTF (Chris Lynch Media).
  • Mill Road: $1.75b is NZTA's 2025 estimate for Stage One alone. The 2020 estimate for the whole corridor was about $1.35b (transporttalk).
  • No Labour or Treasury dollar critique of National's package found. Labour's attacks focus on the missing fiscal plan.
  • No independent costing yet. There is no Treasury, PBO, NZIER or Infometrics costing of National's package, and no Parliamentary Budget Office is operating for this election.

Key uncertainties

  1. No fiscal plan yet. We cannot see the total allowance use, the savings or the headroom for coalition partners' demands.
  2. Employer cost of compulsory KiwiSaver. National's figure is $283m; the PSA puts it at $4.5b. Absorbing it in baselines means service cuts rather than a lower fiscal cost.
  3. Income tax changes after 2028/29. These are hinted but unquantified and could be large.
  4. Capital timing. Mill Road cash flows run past 2030/31, and road cost escalation is a risk.
  5. Student loans. It is unclear whether the $155m ongoing cost is net of the $15m/yr overseas recoveries. The $283m write-down falls in 2026/27, outside the standard window.
  6. ESCT offset. The v1 figure of −$489m wrongly applied the Treasury/IRD Budget 2025 estimate ($163m/yr, for the 3%→4% rise) directly. v2 scales it to National's above-current-law steps: −$305m, our estimate.
  7. Unpublished costs: the FENZ reset (fleet, volunteer insurance), Electrify NZ 2.0 regulatory changes, and the Foodstuffs split (no direct fiscal cost).