The Opportunity Party
Policies by size
Each bar is a policy's four-year cost. Bars are drawn to the same scale.
Interest on up-to-$60b infrastructure borrowing+$3.20bEconomy & businessOur estimatelow
TOP: $2.5-3.5b/yr interest at the full $60b, built up over 5-10 yrs. Method: linear $8b/yr drawdown (7.5-yr midpoint) at 5% (the midpoint of TOP's implied rate). Mid-year balances 4/12/20/28b give 0.2/0.6/1.0/1.4 = $3.2b over 4 yrs (range ~$2.6b for a 10-yr build to ~$4.3b for 5 yrs). Replaces TU's $12.0b, which assumes the full $60b is borrowed from day one.
SourceBreakthrough Economy spending: science, researchers, contestable funds, polytechs, incubators, overseas student-loan forgiveness, ComCom, FinCap+$2.66bEconomy & businessPartymedium
TOP annual table: science 125, researchers 100, contestable 175, polytech 80+20, incubators 26.5, overseas loan forgiveness 95, ComCom 20, consumer advocacy 5, FinCap 20.
SourceBreakthrough Economy tax measures: tech-adoption credit, widened R&D credit, impact-investment deduction+$2.66bTax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium
TOP annual table: $600m + $30m + $34m.
SourceAbundant Energy: ring-fence ~$500m/yr gentailer dividends for energy programme+$2.00bEnvironment & climatePartymedium
TOP: dividends diverted from core Crown revenue are 'a direct cost'. Covers Warmer Kiwi Homes expansion (~$200m), bus electrification (up to $125m), small-scale generation (~$25m), schemes and EV incentives ($126m initially). Capacity Investment Scheme is a contingent liability (expected value $0).
SourceRefund GST on new builds meeting high standards (Homestar 6+/Passive House) to councils+$1.80bHousingOur estimatelow
Uncosted by TOP. Applies only to qualifying high-performance new builds. Method: new-dwelling consents $18.5b (year to Aug 2026, Stats NZ via interest.co.nz) x 15% GST = ~$2.8b, x ~16% qualifying share = ~$450m/yr. 13% of new dwellings were Homestar-certified in 2020 (Infometrics); the incentive would lift this. Replaces TU's $3,986m/yr, which assumed GST on all construction.
SourceFree public transport (net)+$600mTransport & infrastructurePartymedium
TOP: fares ~$300m/yr, less $80-90m and $30-40m x2 of savings, = $150m net. TU disputes at $325m/yr ($1,298m over 4 yrs) using gross NZTA fare revenue.
SourceHealthy Oceans (incl. bottom-trawling phase-out, marine research, coastal restoration)+$400mEnvironment & climatePartymedium
TOP: short-term annual cost 'no more than $100 million'; upper bound. TU recorded $100m over 4 yrs. Bottom trawling phase-out is a bottom line.
SourceClean Up Politics (anti-corruption body, Electoral Commission, costing unit) and Citizens' Assemblies+$258mOtherPartymedium
TOP: ~$52m/yr ($40m anti-corruption body, an upper limit; $10m Electoral Commission; $2m costing unit). Citizens' Assemblies $10-15m/yr (midpoint $12.5m; https://www.opportunity.org.nz/citizens-voice). Lobbying register met from justice baselines (TU: $11.6m). Donations reform is a bottom line.
SourceEnhanced Te Waihanga (independent National Infrastructure Agency)+$108mOtherPartyhigh
TOP infrastructure FAQ: $27m/yr extra.
Source| Policy | 4-yr | Source | Confidence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Interest on up-to-$60b infrastructure borrowingEconomy & businessTOP: $2.5-3.5b/yr interest at the full $60b, built up over 5-10 yrs. Method: linear $8b/yr drawdown (7.5-yr midpoint) at 5% (the midpoint of TOP's implied rate). Mid-year balances 4/12/20/28b give 0.2/0.6/1.0/1.4 = $3.2b over 4 yrs (range ~$2.6b for a 10-yr build to ~$4.3b for 5 yrs). Replaces TU's $12.0b, which assumes the full $60b is borrowed from day one. Source | +$3.20b | Our estimate | low | |
Breakthrough Economy spending: science, researchers, contestable funds, polytechs, incubators, overseas student-loan forgiveness, ComCom, FinCapEconomy & businessTOP annual table: science 125, researchers 100, contestable 175, polytech 80+20, incubators 26.5, overseas loan forgiveness 95, ComCom 20, consumer advocacy 5, FinCap 20. Source | +$2.66b | Party | medium | |
Breakthrough Economy tax measures: tech-adoption credit, widened R&D credit, impact-investment deductionTax: wealth, capital & businessTOP annual table: $600m + $30m + $34m. Source | +$2.66b | Party | medium | |
Abundant Energy: ring-fence ~$500m/yr gentailer dividends for energy programmeEnvironment & climateTOP: dividends diverted from core Crown revenue are 'a direct cost'. Covers Warmer Kiwi Homes expansion (~$200m), bus electrification (up to $125m), small-scale generation (~$25m), schemes and EV incentives ($126m initially). Capacity Investment Scheme is a contingent liability (expected value $0). Source | +$2.00b | Party | medium | |
Refund GST on new builds meeting high standards (Homestar 6+/Passive House) to councilsHousingUncosted by TOP. Applies only to qualifying high-performance new builds. Method: new-dwelling consents $18.5b (year to Aug 2026, Stats NZ via interest.co.nz) x 15% GST = ~$2.8b, x ~16% qualifying share = ~$450m/yr. 13% of new dwellings were Homestar-certified in 2020 (Infometrics); the incentive would lift this. Replaces TU's $3,986m/yr, which assumed GST on all construction. Source | +$1.80b | Our estimate | low | |
Free public transport (net)Transport & infrastructureTOP: fares ~$300m/yr, less $80-90m and $30-40m x2 of savings, = $150m net. TU disputes at $325m/yr ($1,298m over 4 yrs) using gross NZTA fare revenue. Source | +$600m | Party | medium | |
Healthy Oceans (incl. bottom-trawling phase-out, marine research, coastal restoration)Environment & climateTOP: short-term annual cost 'no more than $100 million'; upper bound. TU recorded $100m over 4 yrs. Bottom trawling phase-out is a bottom line. Source | +$400m | Party | medium | |
Clean Up Politics (anti-corruption body, Electoral Commission, costing unit) and Citizens' AssembliesOtherTOP: ~$52m/yr ($40m anti-corruption body, an upper limit; $10m Electoral Commission; $2m costing unit). Citizens' Assemblies $10-15m/yr (midpoint $12.5m; https://www.opportunity.org.nz/citizens-voice). Lobbying register met from justice baselines (TU: $11.6m). Donations reform is a bottom line. Source | +$258m | Party | medium | |
Enhanced Te Waihanga (independent National Infrastructure Agency)OtherTOP infrastructure FAQ: $27m/yr extra. Source | +$108m | Party | high |
Analysis notes
The Opportunity Party (TOP): 2026 fiscal position (as at 6 Oct 2026)
Status: the core Tax Reset is published with a costing table (Tax Reset PDF, 2024 numbers, amended 7 Aug 2026). Most other policies carry their own operating costings (Breakthrough Economy, Abundant Energy, Infrastructure, Clean Up Politics). There is no multi-year fiscal plan.
The LVT and Citizen's Income are not among TOP's five bottom lines (1News, 29 Sep). The leader calls the LVT a "long-term goal" needing a ~6-year phase-in (interest.co.nz). The Tax Reset rows are therefore tagged aspirational.
Headline: Tax Reset (TOP figures, annual, static)
- Citizen's Income gross $69.6b, less $32.6b of benefits and NZ Super base replaced, less $23.4b from higher income tax (28/34/39%), plus $8.3b net supplementary support.
- Land value tax -$24.3b and admin savings -$1.7b.
- Net about -$4.1b/yr; -$16.6b over 4 years if fully in place from year 1.
- Phasing: no phased yield has been published by TOP or any economist. As an illustration only, a linear 6-year LVT phase-in would cut the 4-year LVT yield from $97.3b to ~$40.5b. If the Citizen's Income started in full, the package would then be in deficit.
- KiwiSaver 2.0 (12% compulsory, contributions tax-exempt) is uncosted by TOP. Our estimate is ~$7.0b over 4 years as rates ramp 1pp a year, and $8b+/yr at the full rate.
Total net cost (from policies_top.csv, 2027/28–2030/31)
- Operating (OBEGAL) view: +$15.0b over 4 years. That is the static Tax Reset surplus (-$16.6b) plus KiwiSaver 2.0 (+$7.0b), health to 9% of GDP (+$8.9b, aspirational), and the other measures (~+$15.7b).
- Firm items only: about +$15.7b. These are the costed non–Tax Reset pledges.
- Capital (net debt): +$33.0b. This is the infrastructure envelope's 4-year share ($32b of up to $60b over 5–10 years, including the $5b Climate Resilience Fund) plus the $1b IERF green bond.
- Nothing is in the baseline.
- Changes from TU's figures: infrastructure interest $12.0b → $3.2b (TOP says $2.5–3.5b/yr at full scale, phased); council GST rebate $15.9b → $1.8b (TOP limits it to Homestar 6+ / Passive House new builds); the Climate Resilience Fund is moved to capital; TU's $650m emissions-support item is dropped as a double count with the IERF.
- TU Bribe-O-Meter: $218b gross (TU). It counts the UBI but not the income tax or LVT revenue, so it is not comparable.
Criticisms
- The gross Citizen's Income cost implies ~3.2m recipients against 4.1m adults (goodideasnz).
- The costing table doesn't add up ($68m revenue gap), and the savings figure has moved from $3.8b to $1.7b (Herald).
- No indexation is specified (Fallow).
- Deloitte flags uncertain work incentives and the LVT's incidence on Māori land, farmers and forestry (Deloitte).
- TU disputes free public transport ($325m/yr vs TOP's $150m net).
Key uncertainties
- Phasing and start dates for the whole Tax Reset.
- The LVT base after a 10–15% fall in land values, and how much is deferred.
- Behavioural response to 28–39% rates.
- The infrastructure drawdown profile and the grant/loan split.
- KiwiSaver 2.0 design and the "NZ Super Fund" funding claim.
- Whether the PREFU baseline lets health's share of GDP fall.