NZ Politics Costed

Green Party

Announced policies and their four-year fiscal cost. Positive worsens the Government's books.
Cost basis
New spendingTotal announced
Sources
Party figures onlyIncl. independent
Capital spending
ExcludeInclude
Aspirational pledges
ExcludeInclude
Net 4-year cost
+$44.9b
Spending & tax cuts
+$77.1b
Revenue & savings
−$32.2b
Already in current plans
$0m
Excluded from this view

Policies by size

Each bar is a policy's four-year cost. Bars are drawn to the same scale.

Super-rich tax: 2.5% annual tax on net wealth above $10m ($20m couples), family home and Maori land exempt
−$15.8b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium

Party costing (Parliamentary Library models); Infometrics reviewed but did not re-cost. Assumes 71.5% collected (28.5% avoidance/emigration loss, Parliamentary Library advice informed by Treasury). Treasury/IRD 2023 advice warned of capital flight and valuation difficulty; Newsroom cites Treasury rule of thumb ~5% of affected population leaving per 1ppt. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 3762/3883/4008/4137. Annual column = 4-year average.

Source
Universal student income (Income Guarantee for students, $395/wk, eligibility tests removed)
+$13.4b
EducationPartylow

Party yearly 2628/3306/3398/4035. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. Manifesto 2026: "Support students with a universal student income". Replaces TU $14.4bn row (TU vs party difference ~8%, not material - TU row dropped).

Source
Strengthen Working for Families (boost Family Tax Credit, reduce abatement, extend IWTC to out-of-work families)
+$11.2b
Welfare & income supportPartylow

Party "WFF - Family Top Up" yearly 2481/2702/2821/3153. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. Manifesto 2026 Incomes plan item 4. Not costed by TU.

Source
Income tax changes: $10k tax-free threshold, lower rates to $160k, new 45% top rate above $160k
+$10.0b
Tax: income, GST & excisePartymedium

Party costing. Our cross-check (Treasury ready reckoner not accessible - Cloudflare): static microsimulation on IRD taxable-income distribution 2025 (4.75m people, $278bn income; reproduces IRD tax on taxable income $61.7bn vs $62.1bn actual) gives a static cost of $1.7bn at 2025 incomes and ~$1.1bn in 2027/28 after wage growth (the fixed $160k threshold claws back more over time). Party figure is ~$1.2bn/yr higher, consistent with assuming a behavioural loss on the 45% rate (e.g. income shifted to companies/trusts; static 45% recoup ~$1.7bn). Ignores tax credits (IETC). Party figure treated as conservative. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 2335/2439/2557/2680. Annual column = 4-year average.

Source
Extend ACC to illness and disability (phase 1: Agency for Comprehensive Care; health-condition benefits to 80% of minimum wage)
+$9.31b
Welfare & income supportPartylow

Party yearly -/3066/3096/3148. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. GB2025 funded first two years from ACC investment fund returns then new levies (not in 2026 tax plan).

Source
Liveable incomes: Income Guarantee ($395/wk + $140 sole parent top-up) replacing main benefits for people out of work
+$8.15b
Welfare & income supportPartylow

Party yearly 2362/1809/1928/2055. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. Manifesto 2026: "Increase benefits to liveable rates" and "guarantee a liveable income". Previous version used ~$21bn, which wrongly combined this with the student income guarantee (now a separate row).

Source
Big corporations tax: company rate 28% to 33% for firms with turnover over $30m
−$5.88b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium

Party costing. Our check: PREFU 2026 gross companies tax 2027/28 $22.1bn; a 5ppt rise on ALL companies would mechanically raise ~$3.95bn, so $1.37bn implies large firms pay ~35% of company tax - looks conservative (Infometrics also said some in-scope firms were omitted). Behavioural response uncertain. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 1370/1436/1502/1570. Annual column = 4-year average.

Source
Free early childhood education (cap at $10/day then 35 free hours by 2029)
+$5.38b
EducationPartymedium

Party yearly 581/1163/1762/1873. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. Manifesto 2026: "Make early childhood education free".

Source
Pay equity settlement for ~65,000 care and support workers + restore pay equity law
+$4.40b
HealthPartymedium

Party: "around $1.1 billion a year" (announced 1 Oct 2026). Not in PREFU baseline (claims were extinguished by 2025 law); PREFU lists pay equity claims as a withheld specific fiscal risk. Four-year = 4 x $1.1bn, our arithmetic.

Source
Capital Acquisitions Tax: 33% on inheritances and gifts above $1m received, family home/farm/small gifts exempt
−$4.11b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium

Party costing. ~1,100 recipients a year. Deloitte: no business exemption; pre-death structuring/avoidance not explicitly modelled. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 953/1001/1051/1103. Annual column = 4-year average.

Source
Reverse landlord tax cuts (remove interest deductibility on residential rentals)
−$3.77b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium

Party costing using Parliamentary Library models. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 876/922/970/1003. Annual column = 4-year average.

Source
Universal child benefit for the early years (Best Start expansion)
+$2.82b
Welfare & income supportPartylow

Party "Expansion of Best Start payment" yearly 700/703/706/709. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. Not costed by TU.

Source
Te Rangatiratanga Trust for marae: $2bn Te Totara Haemata intergenerational fund + $400m Te Rakau Whakarauora restoration fund
+$2.44b
OtherPartymedium

Party: $2.44bn paid as $1.22bn a year for two years into a hapu/iwi-owned trust (endowment; capital). Restoration fund spends ~$100m/yr. Previous version (and the Taxpayers Union) double counted the two sub-funds on top of the trust ($4.84bn); corrected to $2.44bn. [Review 2026-10-06: nature capital -> operating: a grant to a non-Crown trust is an operating expense, not a Crown asset.]

Source
Connect Aotearoa transport (operating): $2 adult fare cap, free fares for under-25s/students/CSC holders, more inter-regional and rural buses
+$2.40b
Transport & infrastructurePartymedium

Party four-year programme (Infometrics-reviewed): fares $1.2bn + bus/PT service improvements $1.2bn.

Source
Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunches: restore and expand (150,000 more children)
+$2.25b
EducationPartymedium

Party yearly figures 472/586/591/602. PREFU 2026 treats Healthy School Lunches as time-limited funding (ongoing funding a specific fiscal risk) so treated as new; any residual 2027/28 baseline not identified.

Source
Energy package (operating): KiwiPower operations, zero-interest solar loan subsidy, Warmer Kiwi Homes expansion (50,000 upgrades), community energy, EECA
+$2.10b
Environment & climatePartymedium

Party total operating expenditure through 2030/31 as reported by interest.co.nz (KiwiPower $100m/yr opex; solar loan interest subsidy $421m; Warmer Homes $970m; community energy $200m). Replaces the earlier single $3,052m row built from TU figures.

Source
Major banks levy: 0.06% on liabilities of banks with >$100bn liabilities
−$1.59b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium

Party costing. Four largest banks; incidence may pass to customers. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 373/388/404/420. Annual column = 4-year average.

Source
Expand Jobs for Nature
+$1.52b
Environment & climatePartylow

Party GB2025 yearly 357/387/387/387. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. TU estimate $1,245m (lower; dropped).

Source
Affordable Kai other: Fair Food Fund, doubled Work and Income food grants, food security network, Commerce Commission funding
+$1.16b
Welfare & income supportPartymedium

Party yearly figures: Fair Food Fund 150x4; W&I food grants 94/96/98/100; food security network 17/18/18/19; ComCom 25/26/26/27.

Source
Big tech tax: 5% withholding on service/licence fees paid offshore by large multinationals
−$874m
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartylow

Party costing covers only named firms; party says potential revenue greater. DTA constraints and enforcement untested. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 204/214/223/233. Annual column = 4-year average.

Source
Inland Revenue funding to implement wealth/inheritance/big tech taxes
+$412m
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartyhigh

Party costing; was mis-added as revenue originally (corrected June 2026, RNZ 615085). Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 100/102/104/106. Annual column = 4-year average.

Source
Te reo Maori funding ("Ake, Ake, Ake")
+$200m
EducationPartyhigh

Party: additional $50m a year (incl. $30m/yr teacher te reo PD).

Source
Restore 10-year bright-line test
−$180m
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium

Party costing. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 45/45/45/45. Annual column = 4-year average.

Source
Re-introduce EV uptake incentives (Clean Car Discount)
+$40m
Transport & infrastructurePartylow

Party GB2025 $10m/yr (scheme largely fee-funded). 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure.

Source

Analysis notes

Green Party – 2026 fiscal platform (as at 6 Oct 2026)

Status: The tax plan is complete and costed. Spending is being announced policy by policy. There is no post-PREFU fiscal plan yet. The Greens' Finance news feed shows nothing after PREFU (29 Sep) apart from a PREFU reaction. On 4 Oct Swarbrick said the full fiscal plan would come "in the next few weeks". The "fiscal strategy" that comes up in searches is from June 2025. Manifesto: https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_full

Tax plan ("A tax system for all of us", June 2026)

Party net revenue, corrected: $5,147m (2027/28) rising to $5,725m (2030/31). That is −$21.8bn over four years, i.e. it improves the fiscal balance.

  • Super-rich tax: 2.5% above $10m. Raises $15.8bn and assumes 28.5% leakage.
  • Capital acquisitions tax: 33% above $1m. Raises $4.1bn.
  • Company tax: 33% for firms with turnover above $30m. Raises $5.9bn.
  • Bank levy $1.6bn, big-tech withholding $0.9bn, landlord interest deductibility plus bright-line $4.0bn.
  • Income tax changes cost +$10.0bn. IRD implementation costs +$0.4bn. The IRD funding was originally booked as revenue, an $825m error since corrected.
  • Source: PDF

Our cross-checks:

  • Treasury's ready reckoner page is behind Cloudflare and could not be retrieved.
  • Income tax: we ran a static model over the IRD 2025 taxable-income distribution. It reproduces IRD's tax-on-taxable-income total to within 1%. It gives a cost of about $1.1bn in 2027/28 against the party's $2.3bn. The gap is consistent with the party assuming people avoid the 45% rate, so the party figure is conservative.
  • Company tax: PREFU gross company tax in 2027/28 is $22.1bn. On that base the $1.4bn yield from large firms looks low, which matches Infometrics' remark that some in-scope firms were left out.

Spending (CSV: 44 rows, schema v2)

  • Costed by the party in 2026, about $20.5bn over four years:

    • Affordable Kai, $6.2bn: KiwiMart $2.8bn (capital), school lunches $2.25bn, other food support $1.16bn.
    • Transport four-year programme, $4.1bn.
    • Energy package, $3.1bn ($2.1bn operating, $1.0bn capital).
    • Marae trust, $2.44bn (capital).
    • Care-worker pay equity, $4.4bn ($1.1bn a year, announced 1 Oct).
    • Te reo, $0.2bn.

  • Restated in the 2026 manifesto and costed in the party's 2025 Green Budget, $82.5bn:

    • Free ECE $5.4bn
    • Income Guarantee for people out of work $8.2bn
    • Universal student income $13.4bn
    • ACC phase 1 $9.3bn
    • Working for Families $11.2bn
    • Best Start $2.8bn
    • Free primary care $8.5bn
    • Free dental $6.9bn
    • Public homes $15.4bn (capital)
    • Jobs for Nature $1.5bn
    • EV incentives $0.04bn

    These figures use 2025/26–2028/29 phasing.

  • Costed only by the Taxpayers' Union, low confidence: paid parental leave, fees-free tertiary, student loan and MSD debt write-offs, Pharmac, apprenticeships, rental WOF, MfE/EPA, agricultural pricing admin, lobbying register.

Net cost (four years, + = worsens balance)

View $bn
Tax plan −21.8
Tax plan + spending the party costed in 2026 −1.2
+ manifesto items with Green Budget 2025 costings (all party figures) +81.3
+ items costed only by the Taxpayers' Union +114.7
+ Taxpayers' Union "[Alt costing]" increments (its view: ACC $96bn, liveable benefits $27.6bn, KiwiMart, EVs) +223.1
Firm commitments only, excluding [Alt] rows +72.8
Operating items only (OBEGAL view), excluding [Alt] rows +73.8

The rest is capital, which affects net debt rather than the operating balance: KiwiMart, the marae trust, public homes, transport and energy capital, and the loan write-offs. Nothing is in the PREFU baseline, so in_baseline = 0 throughout.

Fixes from the first pass

  • Removed the Taxpayers' Union's 10% public-service pay rise ($15.5bn). It is not a Green pledge; the manifesto only says to "fund public services adequately".
  • Marae trust double count: the $2bn and $0.4bn funds sit inside the $2.44bn trust. Both the Taxpayers' Union and our first pass had added them on top.
  • Income guarantee double count: the first pass's $21bn included the student income guarantee, which is now its own row.

Criticisms

  • Infometrics found the tax costings "reasonable" given their assumptions, but did not re-cost them and flagged behavioural uncertainty.
  • Treasury and IRD (2023) warned about capital flight and valuation problems with a wealth tax. Deloitte flags emigration risk and the lack of a business exemption in the inheritance tax.
  • The Taxpayers' Union Bribe-O-Meter puts gross spending at $236.7bn. Most of that is its own estimates for full implementation, including ACC at "4× the existing scheme". https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/bribe_o_meter_greens
  • The Greens have refused to engage with the Taxpayers' Union.
  • National called the plan "economic lunacy"; ACT called it "Hunger Games" economics.

Key uncertainties

  1. Which pledges the coming fiscal plan will actually fund. The tax plan nets only about $5–6bn a year, against at least $20bn a year of party-costed pledges.
  2. Phasing. The Green Budget 2025 costings start in 2025/26 and would cost more if delivered from 2027/28 onward.
  3. Real wealth tax yield and the behavioural response to the 45% rate.
  4. ACC and liveable-benefit design. Estimates range from $9bn to $96bn for ACC and from $8bn to $28bn for benefits.