All policies

Party estimate. Our cross-check: static microsimulation on IRD 2025 taxable-income distribution gives $13.9bn at 2025 incomes and ~$13.8bn in 2027/28 - matches. Cuts to $60k cost ~$18.3bn; higher rates (33/39/42/48) recoup ~$4.4bn statically - a behavioural response at 42%/48% (income shifting to 28-33% companies/39% trusts) would raise the true cost, plausibly to $15bn+. Confidence raised to medium. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Method: PREFU 2026 forecasts of Jobseeker Support & Emergency Benefit, Supported Living Payment and Sole Parent Support for 2027/28-2030/31 (10,593/10,424/10,675/10,974 $m) x 100% (doubling). Treated as a lower bound: excludes extra entitlement from higher abatement thresholds and induced take-up; tax clawback minimal under TPM $30k tax-free threshold. No party costing.

Party estimate, no published method or review. Our arithmetic from party stats (3% of people, avg net wealth $6m): ~126k adults x ~$4m above threshold x ~1.7% avg rate = ~$8.6bn gross, so $8.8bn appears to assume NO avoidance/emigration loss; applying the Greens' 28.5% leakage assumption would give ~$6.3bn/yr. Party claimed $23bn from its 2023 wealth tax. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Method: Greens Green Budget 2025 costed removing allowance eligibility tests at current rates at ~$2.6bn/yr extra (2025/26); PREFU student allowances ~$0.7bn/yr; universal pool ~$3.3bn/yr, doubled = ~$6.6bn, minus $0.7bn baseline = ~$5.9bn/yr. Excludes postgraduate extension and abolishing the parental income test beyond the Greens design. No party costing.

Party costing (Parliamentary Library models); Infometrics reviewed but did not re-cost. Assumes 71.5% collected (28.5% avoidance/emigration loss, Parliamentary Library advice informed by Treasury). Treasury/IRD 2023 advice warned of capital flight and valuation difficulty; Newsroom cites Treasury rule of thumb ~5% of affected population leaving per 1ppt. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 3762/3883/4008/4137. Annual column = 4-year average.

Party estimate. Our check: PREFU 2026 gross companies tax 2027/28 $22.1bn x 5/28 = ~$3.95bn static, so $3.4bn is plausible and slightly conservative. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party yearly 2628/3306/3398/4035. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. Manifesto 2026: "Support students with a universal student income". Replaces TU $14.4bn row (TU vs party difference ~8%, not material - TU row dropped).

Party estimate; base and definition not published. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party estimate; arithmetic consistent with $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party "WFF - Family Top Up" yearly 2481/2702/2821/3153. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. Manifesto 2026 Incomes plan item 4. Not costed by TU.

Party costing. Our cross-check (Treasury ready reckoner not accessible - Cloudflare): static microsimulation on IRD taxable-income distribution 2025 (4.75m people, $278bn income; reproduces IRD tax on taxable income $61.7bn vs $62.1bn actual) gives a static cost of $1.7bn at 2025 incomes and ~$1.1bn in 2027/28 after wage growth (the fixed $160k threshold claws back more over time). Party figure is ~$1.2bn/yr higher, consistent with assuming a behavioural loss on the 45% rate (e.g. income shifted to companies/trusts; static 45% recoup ~$1.7bn). Ignores tax credits (IETC). Party figure treated as conservative. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 2335/2439/2557/2680. Annual column = 4-year average.

Party yearly -/3066/3096/3148. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. GB2025 funded first two years from ACC investment fund returns then new levies (not in 2026 tax plan).

Party estimate; implies ~$42bn taxable sales a year; volumes likely fall. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party yearly 2362/1809/1928/2055. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. Manifesto 2026: "Increase benefits to liveable rates" and "guarantee a liveable income". Previous version used ~$21bn, which wrongly combined this with the student income guarantee (now a separate row).

Using $7.7b, the figure in Labour's 4 Oct fiscal plan. Reconciliation: the $6.6b was the gross cost of Investment Boost over the Budget 2025 forecast window (Budget 2025 documents; interest.co.nz), about $1.7b/yr, partly offset by an estimated $2.6b of growth-driven revenue. The $7.7b is the static revenue gain from repeal over Labour's window, with claims allowed to 30 June 2027 and existing assets grandparented. Four years at about $1.7b/yr, growing with the investment base, gives roughly $7-8b, consistent with $7.7b. $7.7b is therefore the right figure for this window. It is static: lost growth-driven revenue (Treasury: up to 0.5% GDP over 5 years) would reduce the net gain. Hall Chadwick reviewed the plan. Stays medium because no Treasury costing on this window was found. Annual = 4-yr / 4. Sources: https://www.interest.co.nz/business/139697/labours-small-business-policy-aims-raise-gst-registration-threshold-help-small ; https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-to-scrap-investment-boost-if-elected-under-new-plan-for-small-businesses/2Q6FJFC4YRDF3FT5M55FLGQCIA/

Party estimate. Implies 2% on ~$85bn (111,700 homes x ~$760k, our arithmetic). Census empty dwellings include baches (exemption unclear); yield erodes as homes are occupied. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party costing. Our check: PREFU 2026 gross companies tax 2027/28 $22.1bn; a 5ppt rise on ALL companies would mechanically raise ~$3.95bn, so $1.37bn implies large firms pay ~35% of company tax - looks conservative (Infometrics also said some in-scope firms were omitted). Behavioural response uncertain. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 1370/1436/1502/1570. Annual column = 4-year average.

Party yearly 581/1163/1762/1873. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. Manifesto 2026: "Make early childhood education free".

Party: "around $1.1 billion a year" (announced 1 Oct 2026). Not in PREFU baseline (claims were extinguished by 2025 law); PREFU lists pay equity claims as a withheld specific fiscal risk. Four-year = 4 x $1.1bn, our arithmetic.

Party costing. ~1,100 recipients a year. Deloitte: no business exemption; pre-death structuring/avoidance not explicitly modelled. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 953/1001/1051/1103. Annual column = 4-year average.

ACT year-by-year: 873 (27/28), 965 (28/29), 1067 (29/30), 1177 (30/31); annual = 4-yr average. Announced 4 Oct 2026 at campaign launch. Seymour: reduces revenue by ~$1b/yr. Safeguards against sheltering large portfolios are undefined. No independent costing yet.

NZF: 'initial annual fiscal cost of approximately $1billion'; claims medium-term self-funding via growth (not counted). Announced 24 Sep 2026. No independent costing found. Could be understated if SMEs pay much more than ~$3.5b of company tax.

Party estimate; design undefined; may conflict with double tax agreements. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party table shows "$1.0 billion" and its $4.1bn net only reconciles if this is a +$1bn net gain (investment cost not netted). RNZ: funding doubled from $500m to $1bn. If treated as a cost with unproven yield, net is ~$2bn/yr worse. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Manifesto: $1bn annually. Assumed additional to Vote Health baseline; partial overlap with existing workforce funding possible but not quantifiable.

Party costing using Parliamentary Library models. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 876/922/970/1003. Annual column = 4-year average.

TOP: $2.5-3.5b/yr interest at the full $60b, built up over 5-10 yrs. Method: linear $8b/yr drawdown (7.5-yr midpoint) at 5% (the midpoint of TOP's implied rate). Mid-year balances 4/12/20/28b give 0.2/0.6/1.0/1.4 = $3.2b over 4 yrs (range ~$2.6b for a 10-yr build to ~$4.3b for 5 yrs). Replaces TU's $12.0b, which assumes the full $60b is borrowed from day one.

Party "Expansion of Best Start payment" yearly 700/703/706/709. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. Not costed by TU.

Labour forecast: $100m 2027/28, $385m 2028/29, $965m 2029/30, $1.35b 2030/31 (sum $2.8b); average ~$700m/yr; long-run ~$1.35b+/yr. Assumes 3% annual house price growth (Treasury BEFU 2026: 3-4%). Exempts the family home, farms, KiwiSaver, shares, business assets and inheritances. Ring-fenced for health. No independent costing found. There is no Treasury/IRD ready reckoner for a new CGT, and the 2019 Tax Working Group design was much broader, so it is not comparable. Stays medium.

TOP annual table: science 125, researchers 100, contestable 175, polytech 80+20, incubators 26.5, overseas loan forgiveness 95, ComCom 20, consumer advocacy 5, FinCap 20.

TOP annual table: $600m + $30m + $34m.

Herald reports ~$2.6b over 4 yrs. Set to -2586 so the package nets to ACT's stated $2.396b over 4 yrs. Annual = 4-yr average.

$2.5b over four years, in the fiscal plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4.

Party: $2.44bn paid as $1.22bn a year for two years into a hapu/iwi-owned trust (endowment; capital). Restoration fund spends ~$100m/yr. Previous version (and the Taxpayers Union) double counted the two sub-funds on top of the trust ($4.84bn); corrected to $2.44bn. [Review 2026-10-06: nature capital -> operating: a grant to a non-Crown trust is an operating expense, not a Crown asset.]

Party four-year programme (Infometrics-reviewed): fares $1.2bn + bus/PT service improvements $1.2bn.

Party yearly figures 472/586/591/602. PREFU 2026 treats Healthy School Lunches as time-limited funding (ongoing funding a specific fiscal risk) so treated as new; any residual 2027/28 baseline not identified.

NZF saving estimate as reported by TU. Not on NZF's own release (6 Sep 2026), which gives no figure. Starts 2029, so ~2 of the 4 yrs; annual = 2140/2. Implies most of the >$1b/yr paid to people who became resident at 50+ is saved. Unlikely: most can naturalise during the grace period (Susan St John: 'hard to see any saving'). Note NZF's '$2m a week to 42,000' line implies ~$0.1b, not $1b. NZF's policy to double the citizenship qualifying period to 10 yrs would raise the saving for recent arrivals. Our cross-check: if 10-25% fail to naturalise, -$0.2b to -$0.5b over the window.

Party total operating expenditure through 2030/31 as reported by interest.co.nz (KiwiPower $100m/yr opex; solar loan interest subsidy $421m; Warmer Homes $970m; community energy $200m). Replaces the earlier single $3,052m row built from TU figures.

Labour costing: $393.3m 2027/28, $553m 2028/29, $553m/yr from 2029/30. 4-yr = 393.3+553x3. Annual = steady state. NZ Herald puts GP visits at ~$512m/yr + maternity scans $28.6m + cervical screening $21.6m (~$562m/yr). Funded (ring-fenced) by the CGT. Included within Labour's $15.5b health total. Re-verified against Labour's primary page. Stays medium because Labour ($553m/yr) and the NZ Herald (~$562m/yr) differ.

Reported as 'almost $2 billion'. Annual = 4-yr / 4.

TOP: dividends diverted from core Crown revenue are 'a direct cost'. Covers Warmer Kiwi Homes expansion (~$200m), bus electrification (up to $125m), small-scale generation (~$25m), schemes and EV incentives ($126m initially). Capacity Investment Scheme is a contingent liability (expected value $0).

Manifesto: $500m annually.

Uncosted by TOP. Applies only to qualifying high-performance new builds. Method: new-dwelling consents $18.5b (year to Aug 2026, Stats NZ via interest.co.nz) x 15% GST = ~$2.8b, x ~16% qualifying share = ~$450m/yr. 13% of new dwellings were Homestar-certified in 2020 (Infometrics); the incentive would lift this. Replaces TU's $3,986m/yr, which assumed GST on all construction.

Party costing. Four largest banks; incidence may pass to customers. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 373/388/404/420. Annual column = 4-year average.

$1.56b over four years for the package. Asset write-off starts July 2027; GST threshold starts July 2028. About 35,000 businesses leave the GST system. No split between the two measures was published. This is Labour's only GST change; no GST rate or food exemption change was found for 2026. Annual = 4-yr / 4. Category: mixed package (GST threshold plus a business write-off); tagged to GST as the headline element. There is no IRD ready reckoner for the GST threshold, and no split between the two measures was published.

Party GB2025 yearly 357/387/387/387. 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure. TU estimate $1,245m (lower; dropped).

NZF: '$400m by the third year once the full cycle is established'. 4-yr assumes build-up of 1/3, 2/3, 3/3, 3/3 of $400m (TU instead used 4x$400m = $1.6b). Independent check: NZF's 36,351 citizen births (2025) x ~90% first-three-children x $5k x 3 cohorts = ~$0.49b/yr at maturity, ~$1.47b over 4 yrs. NZF's figure may be low. Start date not stated.

Party yearly figures: Fair Food Fund 150x4; W&I food grants 94/96/98/100; food security network 17/18/18/19; ComCom 25/26/26/27.

NZF: '$1 billion over the term of government' (3 yrs). Future royalties not counted.

Climate manifesto: $1bn; timing unspecified. May overlap the Energy Sovereignty Fund.

ACT: $193m in 2027/28; ~$0.9b over 4 yrs (NZ Herald). Annual = 4-yr average.

Party costing covers only named firms; party says potential revenue greater. DTA constraints and enforcement untested. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 204/214/223/233. Annual column = 4-year average.

Operating cost (income-related rent subsidies) linked to the Kāinga Ora capital build. Annual = 4-yr / 4. years_covered: Labour reports this as a total over the PREFU forecast period (2026/27-2030/31). Spending is expected from 2027/28, so in practice it is a 4-year figure.

Method: replace national PT fare revenue of ~$324.5m/yr (NZTA State of Public Transport, as cited by Taxpayers Union) phased in linearly over 5 years (20/40/60/80% in years 1-4). Excludes extra service costs from higher patronage.

TOP: fares ~$300m/yr, less $80-90m and $30-40m x2 of savings, = $150m net. TU disputes at $325m/yr ($1,298m over 4 yrs) using gross NZTA fare revenue.

$591m in the fiscal plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4. years_covered: Labour reports this as a total over the PREFU forecast period (2026/27-2030/31). Spending is expected from 2027/28, so in practice it is a 4-year figure.

Labour policy page says $525m; RNZ reports $526m. Labour says it comes from health cost-pressure funding, so it sits inside the $15.5b health total. National says it is missing from the plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4. Labour's page confirms $525m 'funded from Vote Health cost-pressure funding'. Job offers start from 2027. Labour publishes no year-by-year phasing, so it stays medium.

Booked as $420m capital (loan write-off). Annual = 4-yr / 4. Labour's page: starts 1 April 2027 and is costed at the fair value of the loans. It also cites 'nearly $40m annually once fully implemented'; how this relates to the $420m is unclear (possibly ongoing cost or IRD administration), so it is not added. [Review 2026-10-06: nature capital -> operating: loan write-down hits OBEGAL, consistent with other parties' write-off rows.]

Party costing; was mis-added as revenue originally (corrected June 2026, RNZ 615085). Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 100/102/104/106. Annual column = 4-year average.

TOP: short-term annual cost 'no more than $100 million'; upper bound. TU recorded $100m over 4 yrs. Bottom trawling phase-out is a bottom line.

National policy doc table: $124.5m 2028/29, $128.4m 2029/30, $132.3m 2030/31 (none in 2027/28). This is the extra Government contribution paid to newly compulsory members. Contributions rise to 6% employee + 6% employer by 2032. Paid from future Budget operating allowances. Annual = 2030/31. 4-yr column covers 2027/28-2030/31; costs start in 2028/29.

$365m in the fiscal plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4. years_covered: Labour reports this as a total over the PREFU forecast period (2026/27-2030/31). Spending is expected from 2027/28, so in practice it is a 4-year figure.

About 60,000 births/yr x $1,500 = $90m/yr, per National. Paid from operating allowances. NZ First has a similar $1,000 policy.

Announced 26 Jul 2026. 27 weeks in 2027, 28 in 2028, 30 in 2029. National costing: $27m 2027/28, $56.6m 2028/29, $119m 2029/30; 4-yr total $327m, so 2030/31 is about $124.4m (NBR headline: $125m). Parents can also take leave at the same time. Long-term aim is 40 weeks, no date given or costed. From operating allowances.

ACT: ~$80m a year; 4-yr = 4x. Not in TU tally.

No published figure for this policy. National's doc cites the Treasury/IRD Budget 2025 estimate of about $163m/yr average net ESCT for the 3%->4% default-rate rise (1pp), says it expects 'similar' revenue, but chose not to count it. Method: about $81.5m/yr per 0.5pp step. Steps above current law (4% from Apr 2028) at Apr 2029 and Apr 2030; Apr 2031 step counted for one quarter of 2030/31. 2028/29 about 20, 2029/30 about 102, 2030/31 about 183, total about 305. Compulsion ESCT excluded (unknown). Replaces the v1 row, which wrongly applied $163m/yr to this policy (-489).

Climate manifesto: $300m; timing unspecified.

Kai manifesto; with the $2.8bn Kai Credit forms the $3.1bn kai package (RNZ). Supermarket seed funding may be equity (capital).

$74.5m/yr from 1 July 2027; 4-yr = 74.5 x 4. Funded by the CGT. Treated as part of the $15.5b health total.

National's costing, reported by 1News (30 Aug 2026) and NEWS WIRE: one-off $283m write-down booked in 2026/27. This is an accounting impairment, not cash: NZ-based loans are interest-free, so slower repayment lowers their value. It hits OBEGAL. Annual = 0 because it does not recur. Outside the standard 2027/28-2030/31 window. Previously part of a single $438m row.

National doc: $84.3m 2028/29, $94.2m 2029/30, $104.3m 2030/31. PSA (2 Jul 2026) says the real figure is $4.5b of unfunded extra employer costs for public agencies and funded providers, because the provision only covers workers not already in KiwiSaver. Per National, most agencies would absorb the rest within baselines (as in Budget 2026). Over-65 employer contributions (from 1 Jul 2027) also absorbed in baselines, no cost shown. Annual = 2030/31. The PSA claim is shown in its own independent row (the gap above this figure).

$260m over 4 years (NZ Herald, Coughlan). Reconciles with $195m over three years, i.e. $65m/yr, in the NZ Herald of 27 Aug 2026 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-signals-2b-cut-to-transport-budget-to-pay-for-fuel-tax-promise/premium/LINXWXMXFVAP5AUMREGAN7A5EU/). Upgraded low -> medium. Funded by reprioritising ~1% of the NLTF, not new Crown money, so the net Crown cost may be ~0. Annual = 4-yr / 4.

TOP: ~$52m/yr ($40m anti-corruption body, an upper limit; $10m Electoral Commission; $2m costing unit). Citizens' Assemblies $10-15m/yr (midpoint $12.5m; https://www.opportunity.org.nz/citizens-voice). Lobbying register met from justice baselines (TU: $11.6m). Donations reform is a bottom line.

Labour primary page: averages $56.5m/yr over 2027/28-2030/31 ($21m in 2027/28 rising to $71.5m in 2030/31). Matches the $226m in the fiscal plan. Upgraded medium -> high.

Manifesto: $220m over four years.

Party: additional $50m a year (incl. $30m/yr teacher te reo PD).

Climate manifesto; timing unspecified.

Manifesto: $200m over three years.

Party costing. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 45/45/45/45. Annual column = 4-year average.

ACT: ~$40.6m/yr on 2026 guest nights, with per-council amounts. 4-yr = 4x, no growth.

National's costing (via 1News/NEWS WIRE): $438m over five years, minus the $283m write-down, leaves $155m over 2027/28-2030/31. No year split published, so annual = 4-yr / 4 (1News said 'about $31m a year'). National expects about $15m/yr net recoveries from tougher overseas enforcement (higher interest, KiwiSaver withdrawal limits, warrants). It is unclear whether $155m is net of these; NEWS WIRE notes $15m is 0.6% of the $2,478m overdue.

National doc: $20.1m, $24.6m, $29.6m, $35.0m for 2027/28-2030/31. Modelled as the full employer contribution on PPL payments, less ESCT and the cost of the current matching policy. Annual = 2030/31. The four KiwiSaver rows add to $1,137m over 4 years (RNZ: 'over $1 billion').

TOP infrastructure FAQ: $27m/yr extra.

Announced 8 Sep 2026 in place of a bed tax. DOC gets a fixed $100m/yr, a new tourism priorities fund $50m/yr, and councils the residual (forecast $86m 2027/28 rising to $106m 2030/31; about $385m to councils over 4 yrs). National puts the Crown cost at $105.1m over 4 yrs, rising from $15.4m to $38.9m. Peters called it 'reallocating the operating allowance'. Annual = 2030/31.

Manifesto: $100m over three years.

$21m/yr; $84m over four years.

Party GB2025 $10m/yr (scheme largely fee-funded). 2026 manifesto restates the pledge but gives no 2026 costing; figure is the party's own Green Budget 2025 costing (Infometrics-reviewed), used as the best available party figure.

Manifesto: $10m + $19m + $10m; timing unspecified, summed once.

Announced 13 Sep 2026. $7m/yr from Budget 2027. 4-yr = 7 x 4.

One-off grant.

Party costing reported by TU.

TU: midpoint of ACT's own year-by-year projections. ACT: ~$320m extra in yr 1, funded from expected growth in the health budget (no new tax, no cut to the rest of health). TU counts $0 for that reason. Recorded as within the PREFU health allowance, so the full amount sits in in_baseline. [Audit 2026-10-06: cost_source changed from independent to party. The $1.9b is ACT's own year-by-year projection; the Taxpayers' Union tags it (t), meaning party costing taken at face value.]

Labour states $15.5b additional health funding over the forecast period combining the PREFU cost-pressure track with its announced health commitments. Residual = 15,500 minus the Medicard (2,052), free prescriptions (298) and graduate nurse (525) rows. Mostly matches spending the current Government also pencils in from its allowances, so not incremental vs the status quo. National says year-4 (2030/31) cost pressures are $1.5b unfunded. Annual = 4-yr / 4. In-baseline estimate (method): PREFU 2026 sets out coalition health cost-pressure increases of $1.4b-$1.55b per Budget for Budgets 2027-2029, none in 2030/31 (NZ Herald/RNZ, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labours-fiscal-plan-answers-some-questions-but-leaves-10b-hanging/premium/RJATN744F5CNJOYC4WAVPQ6PJU/). Each increase recurs, so the cumulative 2027/28-2030/31 cost is 4+3+2 = 9 Budget-years x $1.40b-$1.55b = $12.6b-$14.0b. That is at or above this residual, so the whole $12,625m is treated as in-baseline. The low end ($12.6b) reconciles exactly with $15.5b minus Labour's announced health items, which suggests Labour adopted the PREFU track at about $1.4b per Budget. Low confidence: the per-Budget phasing was not published. Re-verified: no published figure for the PREFU cost-pressure total exists, so this stays our_estimate. Years: the PREFU track starts with Budget 2027 (2027/28).

Announced 6-7 Sep 2026. National estimates $4m-$6m/yr; midpoint $5m used. Funded by reprioritising existing baselines, so it is not new money. Crown underwrites the loans (contingent liability not costed). Critics warn it could push up prices at the capped end of the market. in_baseline = full $20m because it is funded by reprioritising money already in the PREFU baselines. interest.co.nz (6 Sep 2026, citing the National policy doc): the $4-6m covers admin and support for an expected doubling of the scheme; current admin is about $14.5m/yr for about 3,085 underwritings (2024/25). Budget 2025 lowered the ongoing cost by making borrowers pay Lenders Mortgage Insurance. Confidence stays medium because only a range is given.

Government decision on 31 Aug 2026. The 12c rise planned for 1 Jan 2027 is replaced by 5c every six months from 2028 (20c in total vs 22c). NLTF topped up by $1.476b over the forecast period: $450m from the Budget 2026 fuel-crisis contingency, the rest in PREFU. Already in PREFU, so the full $1,476m is in_baseline. No year-by-year split published, so annual = 4-yr / 4 (369). years_covered is the PREFU forecast period; RNZ says "over the forecast period", so this is an assumption.

Reallocation of existing baseline; transition costs not costed.