NZ First
Policies by size
Each bar is a policy's four-year cost. Bars are drawn to the same scale.
20% company tax rate for SMEs (turnover <$30m)+$4.00bTax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium
NZF: 'initial annual fiscal cost of approximately $1billion'; claims medium-term self-funding via growth (not counted). Announced 24 Sep 2026. No independent costing found. Could be understated if SMEs pay much more than ~$3.5b of company tax.
SourceNZ Super for citizens only from 2029 (3-yr grace period)−$2.14bSuper & KiwiSaverPartylow
NZF saving estimate as reported by TU. Not on NZF's own release (6 Sep 2026), which gives no figure. Starts 2029, so ~2 of the 4 yrs; annual = 2140/2. Implies most of the >$1b/yr paid to people who became resident at 50+ is saved. Unlikely: most can naturalise during the grace period (Susan St John: 'hard to see any saving'). Note NZF's '$2m a week to 42,000' line implies ~$0.1b, not $1b. NZF's policy to double the citizenship qualifying period to 10 yrs would raise the saving for recent arrivals. Our cross-check: if 10-25% fail to naturalise, -$0.2b to -$0.5b over the window.
SourceKiwi Kids Grant: $5,000/yr for first 3 years of first 3 children+$1.20bWelfare & income supportPartymedium
NZF: '$400m by the third year once the full cycle is established'. 4-yr assumes build-up of 1/3, 2/3, 3/3, 3/3 of $400m (TU instead used 4x$400m = $1.6b). Independent check: NZF's 36,351 citizen births (2025) x ~90% first-three-children x $5k x 3 cohorts = ~$0.49b/yr at maturity, ~$1.47b over 4 yrs. NZF's figure may be low. Start date not stated.
SourceNational Subsurface Development Survey (oil, gas, geothermal, CO2 storage)+$1.00bEconomy & businessPartyhigh
NZF: '$1 billion over the term of government' (3 yrs). Future royalties not counted.
Source| Policy | 4-yr | Source | Confidence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
20% company tax rate for SMEs (turnover <$30m)Tax: wealth, capital & businessNZF: 'initial annual fiscal cost of approximately $1billion'; claims medium-term self-funding via growth (not counted). Announced 24 Sep 2026. No independent costing found. Could be understated if SMEs pay much more than ~$3.5b of company tax. Source | +$4.00b | Party | medium | |
NZ Super for citizens only from 2029 (3-yr grace period)Super & KiwiSaverNZF saving estimate as reported by TU. Not on NZF's own release (6 Sep 2026), which gives no figure. Starts 2029, so ~2 of the 4 yrs; annual = 2140/2. Implies most of the >$1b/yr paid to people who became resident at 50+ is saved. Unlikely: most can naturalise during the grace period (Susan St John: 'hard to see any saving'). Note NZF's '$2m a week to 42,000' line implies ~$0.1b, not $1b. NZF's policy to double the citizenship qualifying period to 10 yrs would raise the saving for recent arrivals. Our cross-check: if 10-25% fail to naturalise, -$0.2b to -$0.5b over the window. Source | −$2.14b | Party | low | |
Kiwi Kids Grant: $5,000/yr for first 3 years of first 3 childrenWelfare & income supportNZF: '$400m by the third year once the full cycle is established'. 4-yr assumes build-up of 1/3, 2/3, 3/3, 3/3 of $400m (TU instead used 4x$400m = $1.6b). Independent check: NZF's 36,351 citizen births (2025) x ~90% first-three-children x $5k x 3 cohorts = ~$0.49b/yr at maturity, ~$1.47b over 4 yrs. NZF's figure may be low. Start date not stated. Source | +$1.20b | Party | medium | |
National Subsurface Development Survey (oil, gas, geothermal, CO2 storage)Economy & businessNZF: '$1 billion over the term of government' (3 yrs). Future royalties not counted. Source | +$1.00b | Party | high | |
| +$15m | Party | high |
Analysis notes
NZ First: 2026 fiscal position (as at 6 Oct 2026)
Status: no fiscal plan or costed manifesto exists. The policies are piecemeal campaign announcements (nzfirst.nz/policy). Two tax pledges, the $14k tax-free threshold and removing GST on rates, appear only in NZF's survey answer to the PHCC (PHCC, 1 Oct 2026).
Headline policies
- Superannuation: NZ Super for citizens only from 2029, after a 3-year grace period; the age stays at 65 (NZF release, 6 Sep). The saving TU attributes to NZF is -$2.14b over 4 years. NZF's own release gives no figure.
- GST: remove GST from council rates, ~$1.1b/yr (Infometrics via LGNZ). The 2023 pledge to take GST off food has not been re-announced (KPMG tracker, Aug 2026: "no change").
- Tax: a 20% SME company rate (
$1b/yr, NZF). A $14k tax-free threshold from April 2027: **$5.5b/yr, $22.4b over 4 years**, extrapolated from Treasury/IR's published costings of $1.9b for a $5k threshold and $3.8b for $10k (B23 release). - Families and savings: Kiwi Kids Grant ($400m/yr at maturity, $1.2b over 4 years phased), $1,000 KiwiSaver at birth, compulsory KiwiSaver at 8%→10% (TU: $6.3b over 4 years as employer; wording ambiguous).
- Capital: BNZ buyback (TU: $26.7b) and the $100b Future Fund (TU: $13.3b over 4 years, "to investigate").
Total net cost (from policies_nzfirst.csv, 2027/28–2030/31)
- Operating (OBEGAL) view: +$39.8b over 4 years. About $22.4b of this rests on the survey-only tax-free threshold. Excluding it: about +$17.4b.
- Capital (net debt): +$40.0b (BNZ $26.7b plus Future Fund $13.3b).
- Nothing is in the PREFU baseline.
- TU Bribe-O-Meter (spending only, mixes capital and operating): $49.4b (TU).
- Commitment: 11 firm, 4 aspirational (GST off rates, the KiwiSaver rate rise, Make NZ Healthy, the Future Fund).
Funding
NZF says the SME cut pays for itself through growth. It says the BNZ purchase is "not funded from the operating budget" and is self-financing, because BNZ's ~$1.5b of earnings services the debt. The operating effect is roughly earnings gained minus interest on $26.7b ($1.2b), so about +$0.3b/yr. It also expects subsurface-survey royalties. No overall plan.
Criticisms and alternative costings
- Super saving is doubtful. Susan St John: "hard to see that there would be any saving" because people would naturalise (ODT). NZF's "$2m a week to 42,000" line implies ~$0.1b/yr, not $1b. Our cross-check: -$0.2b to -$0.5b over the window if 10–25% fail to naturalise. NZF's plan to double the citizenship qualifying period to 10 years cuts the other way.
- Kiwi Kids Grant may be under-costed: about $0.49b/yr at maturity on NZF's own count of citizen births. Paul Spoonley doubts it would lift the birth rate (Herald).
- TU's $2.1b for Make NZ Healthy mostly assumes a nurse pay rise NZF never specified.
Key uncertainties
- Whether the PHCC survey positions are real pledges.
- The KiwiSaver rate design: 8% combined or 8% each side. The "cut tax to offset KiwiSaver" pledge is uncosted.
- SME tax cost has not been independently checked.
- The Future Fund's Crown share. Mining royalty sharing and higher citizenship fees are unquantified.